Consumer Sentiment Universal Value Advisors It’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend. Consumers are looking for bargains. Despite what may be a better-than-expected start to the holiday season, for reasons discussed below, the indicators that measure the state of the U.S. consumer are mainly downbeat, and we think that overall, holiday sales will disappoint. Share prices of…
Monetary Base YoY% Change NSA Universal Value Advisors The evidence on inflation is quite clear; it peaked in June and is now on the wane. The latest data came from the Producer Price Index (PPI) which rose only 0.2% in October (consensus was +0.4%). This is a monthly level the Fed could live with (2.4%…
Fed Tightening Cycle Over Past 40 Years Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research The CPI came in at +0.4% M/M for October, much better than the +0.6% consensus estimate, and the Y/Y number, a favorite of the Fed, fell to 7.7% from 8.2%. The financial markets rejoiced. The tech heavy indexes, which had been hit hardest in…
US Used Vehicle Value Index YoY% Universal Value Advisors The big news today was that payrolls increased by +261K. This caused markets to rally (shoot first, ask questions later). Interest rates moved up because the headline +261K may cause the Fed to be even more hawkish. Nevertheless, beneath the veneer, this was a very weak…
Better than expected earnings from Starbucks have shares up nearly 10% in early trading. (Photo by … [+] Christopher Furlong/Getty Images) Getty Images Key Takeaways Can Stocks Hold Friday’s Early Gains? Employment Still Strong Despite Layoff Announcements Chinese Stocks and Starbucks Having Impressive Weeks Heading into the end of the week, it’s been a bit…
Today saw another reasonable jobs report, but unemployment could be edging up (Photo by Justin … [+] Sullivan/Getty Images) Getty Images Most definitions of U.S. unemployment moved up in October. This may signal a weakening jobs market. On recent data, the U.S. unemployment rate is broadly flat and no longer declining. If unemployment moves up…
GDP & Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Refinitiv; Capital Economics The only saving grace of the GDP report was its headline +2.6%. As it turns out, Net Exports added 2.8 percentage points, and for the wrong reasons. Excluding Net Exports, the domestic economy’s GDP growth was -0.2%. The Recession continues. While the country still…
Equity markets closed the week higher, up nearly 5% with half the gain occurring on Friday (October 21). There was also big news in bondland. The 10-Year Treasury yield broke the 4% barrier and now stands above 4.2% (see table). Bond yields had been marching ever higher on continued hawkish comments from some Fed governors.…
Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 28, 2020 at … [+] Wall Street in New York City. – Losses on Wall Street deepened following a bruising open, as global markets were poised to conclude their worst week since 2008 with another rout. (Photo by Johannes EISELE…
“A softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices,” the Federal Reserve said. Source link