Digital stock market tracking graph follwing a recent crash in prices. getty Key Takeaways Warnings About the Economy’s Future Higher End Retail Sales Stay Positive Oil Keeps Climbing Employment Numbers Remain Strong Heading into Friday, markets were on pace to put together consecutive winning weeks. After surviving a deluge of economic data and a profit…
The American worker is getting lazier. Or at least, that’s what a quick look at recent productivity numbers might make you think. Q1 productivity dropped for American workers while wages actually increased – workers are getting paid more to get less done. Is it laziness though? As tempting as the assertion might be, there’s a…
Stagflation can be defined as a prolonged period in which an economy experiences persistently high inflation, high unemployment rates, and stagnant aggregate demand. It is a period where central banks experience a zugzwang situation where monetary tools meant to control rising inflation lead to higher unemployment and lower economic production. NORTH MIAMI – FEBRUARY 20:…
Serious employer reading resumes of candidates for vacancy getty The labor market is recovering from the pandemic with the overall U.S. unemployment rate falling to 3.6% in March. However, it remained stagnant for women and Black Americans at 3.3% and 6.2% respectively. Specifically, Black men continue to experience persistent unemployment gaps and reduced economic opportunity,…
US retail sales boomed in January despite high inflation. And jobs have been growing while … [+] unemployment falls, but consumer sentiment is negative. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images There’s great economic news in the just-released February employment report—638,000 new jobs, a 3.8%…
Index of Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan The financial markets were stunned by the huge rise in net new jobs in both the Establishment (Payroll) Survey (+467K; consensus forecast +125K), a monthly survey of businesses, and the Household Survey (+1.2 million), a similar survey of individual households. This was especially surprising given the weakening economic…
Correlation Between Workers and Diners Refinitiv, OpenTable The market moving headlines this week involved a stronger than expected Q4 GDP growth print and a much more hawkish Fed (Powell) than the markets had priced in. “Volatility,” a word normally used by floor traders when markets have huge sell-offs, truly fulfilled its meaning this week as swings…
S&P 500 Index vs. ARKK Innovation Fund Real Investment Advice A very poor 2022 start for equities, off to their poorest start since 2011. Fixed income markets are faring no better with the 10-Year Treasury up 26 basis points since New Year’s Eve (1.77% vs. 1.515) (Bond prices fall when yields rise). In addition, the yield curve…
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The Fed (Powell) says the economy is strong and has signaled several rate hikes beginning in March. The data (and the Fed’s own Beige Book) say otherwise. But this politicized Fed appears to have no choice as the Administration’s poll ratings are at record lows,…
Non-financial Corporate Business; Corporate Equities; Asset, Market Value Levels Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systems Employment numbers for December were much weaker than expected with net new job creation at +199K, significantly below the +422K consensus view. In addition, the workweek contracted as did factory overtime. But markets didn’t react much to this. Instead, because the…