The shares of DocuSign (DOCU) have been struggling to rebound from their Nov. 9, three-year low of $39.57. Long-term pressure at its 100-day moving average has helped guide DocuSign stock lower in recent months, and the shares are down 69.3% year-to-date. Now may not be a good time to bet on a rebound, either, as DOCU has just run into a historically bearish trendline on the charts.
According to a study from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, DocuSign stock has come within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average six times in the last three years. One month following these instances, DOCU was lower 83% of the time, averaging a 9.9% drop. A similar move from its current perch at $47.42 would place the stock just below the $43 level.
An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could provide headwinds as well. In the last 10 days, 2.36 calls have been picked up for every put at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio ranks higher than 95% of readings from the past year, showing a much stronger-than-usual penchant for calls.
Furthermore, DOCU’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 87 out of 100 means the stock has consistently exceeded options traders’ volatility expectations during the past year.